Monday, January 14, 2008

Falcons candidates

****ALERT: The previously planned series on Falcons head coaching candidates has been canceled****

The reason I have decided to forgo the series is simple: Things are just far too confusing right now. Each week a new candidate enters and another falls out. It's like the presidential election.

Another reason a long, drawn-out series is worthless at this point is because - and I have nothing to base this on - I think the Falcons are going to make a move within the next few days. Don't get all crazy on me here and say, 'Oh, Jay Adams' sources say the Falcons are ready to move.' That's not true. All I'm saying is that I have a gut feeling that something is going to happen soon.

The reason I say that is because two teams - the Cowboys and the Colts - that have the best candidates are now out of the playoffs, which means the Falcons can really start getting down to the nitty gritty with a few candidates. Dallas offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is being brought back for a second interview Tuesday and Indy coordinator Jim Caldwell is likely to be contacted soon after.

With general manager Thomas Dimitroff finally aboard, the Falcons can move full-steam ahead with their decision. While I think Dimitroff is going to have a couple extra guys on his wish list, I think the Falcons are going to go with one of three candidates at this point: Garrett, Caldwell or Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan.

Garrett is an anomoly. No one really knows what his deal is. Before the season, we heard he was being groomed to take over for Wade Phillips in Dallas whenever he stepped aside. Next thing we know he's interviewing all over the league. It's being reported that Garrett is interviewing in Baltimore before Atlanta, which could mean the Falcons are out of luck if the Ravens decide to get aggressive with him. In my opinion, that would be just fine. I'm not buying into Garrett's hype. He got lucky with Tony Romo and had a great receiver in Terrell Owens. Two players do not make a great coordinator. Besides, Garrett is green as far as responsibility goes. He may have what it takes to clean the team up offensively, but it's the off-field stuff that's the problem. In that category, someone as young and inexperienced as Garrett would be in over his head.

Caldwell would be a fantastic choice here. If you read my column in Monday's paper, you read how I felt Dimitroff is just another example of what being associated with Bill Belichick can do for you. The fact that he was on the Patriots' staff means nothing and, in my eyes, he hasn't proven anything. Anyway, if there's a stable you really want to invade, it's Tony Dungy's. Lovie Smith, Rod Marinelli, Marvin Lewis: need I say more? Caldwell has been around the league long enough to know exactly how to handle the Falcons' off-field and locker-room problems, and he has seen enough on-field success to know what needs to be done to the team. He's absolutely perfect! But... there's a catch. Dungy is in the midst of deciding whether or not he wants to continue coaching. If Dungy steps away from the game, suddenly Caldwell becomes the top candidate for the Colts' position. And if you're a candidate, which team would you rather choose: the one that's one year removed from a Super Bowl title or the one that you're surprised didn't disband by Week 6?

That leaves Rex Ryan. Who? Exactly. Don't expect the really sexy pick we thought Arthur Blank would make for the head coaching position. Ryan is a virtual unknown in the world of assistants and it's tough to say exactly why. He has been responsible for a lot of Baltimore's defensive success over the years and it looks like he's ready to step into a role with more responsibility. There is one problem I see with that: The Falcons do not need defensive help more than they need offensive help. That's what makes Ryan's candidacy so puzzling. The only explanation would be that Blank is impressed with the name he submitted for offensive coordinator should he be hired. For some, there is the problem that very few of us know who Ryan is. To that I say: No one knew who Mike Tomlin was, either; Marvin Lewis was an unknown at one point; Love Smith couldn't get a head job to save his life for awhile. Maybe Ryan will fall into line with the success those coaches have seen despite flying under the radar for so long.

The moral of the story is this: The Falcons will make a move relatively soon and it probably won't be who you want it to be. Sound discouraging? It probably won't be...

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